It was an interesting, to say the least, four weeks to start the NFL season.
Here’s the good, the bad, the ugly, and the eye-catching, from the first month of the season.
Who’s been the best of the best thus far? The Cowboys are in the mix for the best team thus far, but just miss out, slotting in behind the Patriots, who have absolutely beaten up and beaten down their first four opponents, three of whom are supposed to be playoff-caliber.
Elite Eight
1. Patriots
2. Cowboys
3. Colts
4. Packers
5. Steelers
6. Seahawks
7. Lions
8. Buccaneers
Top Headlines
1. The way the NFC North has played out: After four weeks, the Packers (4-0) and Lions (3-1) are atop the division standings, while the Bears are last in the division at 1-3.
2. The number of supposed contenders that have struggled: The Bears, Chargers, and Eagles are all 1-3, while the Saints are 0-3. The main reasons for each team’s slow start is the subpar play from each team’s supposed strength (Bears’ defense has struggled, and Chargers and Saints have been off on offense).
The Broncos (2-2) have underperformed, and it‘s shown through in two straight losses, while the Ravens (2-2), 49ers (2-2), Panthers (2-2), Bengals (1-3), and Jets (1-3) haven’t performed as they were expected to at the start of the season.
3. The resurgence of Brett Favre: Most, including many Packers fans, have been ready for Favre to retire for a year or two and hand over the reins to Aaron Rodgers.
There was merit to those comments, after Favre’s numbers had declined in the last couple of seasons. But, coming into this season, there was the momentum of winning the last four games last season, and making a late run at a playoff berth.
Favre wasn’t too happy when the Packers couldn’t get Randy Moss in the offseason, and you couldn’t blame him if he had packed it in then, but instead, he’s come out and had a season reminiscent of his prime. By the end of the season, he will have ownership of most of the significant passing records - completions, touchdowns, wins as a starter, and yards. And, there’s also his consecutive games streak, which likely won’t end until he hangs it up, which may well not be for another year or two if he keeps this up.
4. The increased emphasis on offense: Defenses have been getting quite the workout so far. There have already been 27 games where there was at least one 300-yard passer, as opposed to 20 at this point last season (didn‘t reach 27 until Week 7). And, there have been seven games where a team had a 300-yard passer and 100-yard rusher, while there were only three at this point in 2006 (didn‘t get to seven until Week 10).
5. The improvement of last year’s bottom teams: The Lions are 3-1, and Jon Kitna’s suddenly not looking stupid for predicting 10 wins. The Browns are 2-2, and would be 3-1, if not for a blocked field goal against the Raiders, who are 2-2, and could be 3-1 or 4-0, if late-game situations had gone their way. There’s also the Bucs, who are 3-1 and leading the NFC South.
Monthly Awards
September MVP: There are four candidates that stand out. Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Brett Favre, and Tony Romo.
In the end, it comes down to Favre and Moss, who have made the biggest individual difference in their team’s success. You could say Brady more so than Moss, and be justified in it, but Moss is the leader of that new receiving corps that’s helped Brady to a 134.7 rating, 79.2 completion %, and 13 touchdowns in four games.
I’ll go with Favre, considering his and the Packers resurgence was very, very unexpected by pretty much 99% of the NFL world.
Offensive Player of the Month: Brady. Them’s some Playstation numbers there.
Defensive Player of the Month: I’m biased towards picking Anthony Henry, because of his league-leading four interceptions and twelve passes defended.
But, something has to be said for what Nick Barnett of Green Bay (35 tackles, two interceptions, five passes defended) and Barrett Ruud of Tampa Bay (40 tackles, three forced fumbles, and a pick) are doing to lead their teams. Ruud, a third-year ‘backer from Nebraska, is having a breakout year, while Barnett is getting his due as one of the premier linebackers in the league (on track to start his career with a fifth straight season with 100+ tackles).
Offensive Rookie of the Month: Adrian Peterson, Vikings - Peterson has three 100-yard games thus far and has 383 rushing yards through four games, and has proved to be a pretty capable receiver as well, with nine catches for 166 yards and a score.
Defensive Rookie of the Month: Patrick Willis, 49ers - It didn’t take the 11th overall pick long to show why he was so highly touted coming out of Ole Miss. In his debut, Willis recorded 11 tackles and forced a fumble. For the month, he finished tied for third in the league with 38 stops.
October Predictions
Of the good surprises, which will still be going at the end of October? The Packers (underperforming run game), Lions (defense), and Bucs (key injuries on offense) all have flaws that could slow them down in the next month.
The Packers face Chicago and Washington at home and go to Denver at the end of the month. The Packers’ defense should have success against the Redskins and Bears, teams whose offenses aren’t exactly burning up the stat sheets, while the offense should continue to do well, if a) Favre’s arm doesn’t fall off, and b) if the run game can finally, finally get going.
As for the Bucs, they go to Indy on Sunday, then face Tennessee, and finish out the month with games against Detroit and Jacksonville.
From the looks of it, Green Bay should probably be 6-1, the Lions 4-3 or 5-2, and the Bucs 5-3, at best.
Of the contenders who have started poorly, which one is going to have the ship righted by the end of the month? San Diego has the talent on offense and defense to turn it around in a hurry. And, if they can knock off Denver on the road on Sunday, they should win home games against Oakland and Minnesota. A 4-3 record won’t be pretty, but it would more than likely be enough to lead the AFC West.
Which is most likely to hit rock bottom? If the Bengals don’t start playing some defense soon, they’ll be staring at memories of the 90s. With the issues the Bears have on offense, and now on defense (injuries, and not just playing up to par), they need to turn it around quickly to avoid the NFC North cellar.
How will the division races be playing out at the end of the month? AFC East - Patriots will be on the way to clinching by Thanksgiving. AFC North - Steelers will still be on top. AFC South - The Titans, Jaguars, and Texans will all be chasing the Colts, who will be chasing another title. AFC West - This one is a tough call. There are four flawed teams in this division, but it looks like the Broncos are the least flawed.
NFC East - Dallas should be at least two games ahead, if not more. NFC North - If the Packers can take advantage of two winnable home games, they’ll have a solid edge in the division when November starts. NFC South - It all depends on how long Jake Delhomme is out. If he comes back quickly, the Panthers will be just fine. But, if not, the Bucs will pick up enough wins to keep the division lead. NFC West - This one is the Seahawks’ to lose, now that Alex Smith looks to be out for an extended period of time. But, watch out for the Cardinals, if they don’t trip themselves up like they always seem to do, one way or another.
And if they do, well, they are who we thought they were.
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